05/08/2016 - Disappointing NFP Foreshadows Even More Dovish Fed

* Fundamental Recap: Disappointing NFP Foreshadows Even More Dovish Fed
* Market Movers: Weekly Technical Outlook
* Look Ahead: Stocks
* Look Ahead: Commodities

The headline US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) number for April came in on Friday at 160,000 jobs added vs prior consensus forecasts of around 200,000. The April number was down considerably from the unrevised 215,000 jobs added in the previous month of March. This very substantial disappointment in the employment picture rather accurately mirrors the ADP employment report that was released just two days earlier, which came in at 156,000 jobs added in April vs prior expectations also around 200,000. Despite both the unemployment rate and the change in average hourly earnings remaining steady and as expected on Friday at 5.0% and +0.3%, respectively, the plunge in the actual number of NFP jobs added from prior months potentially foreshadows an even lower probability of further near-term rate hikes by an already-dovish Federal Reserve.

Prior to Friday's disappointing NFP release, the Fed had remained steadfastly cautious with regard to further rate hikes. It asserted last week in its FOMC statement that while the labor market had seen improvements, other economic growth indications were slowing and... Full text »

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